Risk and Return In Security Analysis & Portfolio Management

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课程名称:证券分析与投资组合管理中的风险与收益 课程概述:本课程旨在通过计算证券的风险与收益,帮助学生分析证券与投资组合。在考虑证券的风险和收益的基础上进行投资是至关重要的。课程内容深入探讨了每种证券的风险与收益的计算和模型,为投资者提供建议,以便更好地在股票市场中选择合适的证券。学生将学习以下内容: 1. 风险与收益的概念 2. 证券的风险与收益计算 3. 利用风险与收益分析证券 4. 投资组合风险与投资组合收益 5. 投资组合管理 6. 资本资产定价模型(CAPM) 7. 利用CAPM计算均衡收益 8. 利用CAPM估算证券价值 9. 套利定价理论(APT) 10. 沙普指标模型 在投资分析中,风险表示与投资相关的可能收益的变动性。风险是实际收益与预期收益之间差异的可能性。股票比债券的风险更高。风险可分为系统性风险和非系统性风险。 - 系统性风险:由影响证券价格的因素引起的返回变动,通常受到经济、社会和政治因素影响,并影响所有股票的收益方向。 - 市场风险:因市场价格波动引起的收益变动。 - 利率风险:因利率水平变化引起的收益变动。 - 通货膨胀风险:未来投资收益购买力不确定性引起的风险。 - 非系统性风险:因特定企业或行业因素引起的风险,可以通过投资组合的多样化来降低。 - 商业风险:与企业经营环境相关的风险。 - 财务风险:与企业资本结构中的财务杠杆程度相关的风险。 收益是投资过程中的主要动力,每位投资者都倾向于追求更高的收益。投资决策通常基于预期收益,预期收益是投资者在一定时期内预期获得的回报,包括股息、红利、利息和资本收益等。历史收益或实际收益是因股息、利息和资本收益实际实现的返回。 通过本课程,学生将掌握证券分析和投资组合管理中的核心概念与工具,为未来的投资决策打下坚实的基础。

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This course helps in Analyzing the Securities & Portfolios by calculating the Risk and Return of Securities. Investment can be made in Securities by considering the Risk as well as Return involved in the Securities. So this course gives an insight into the Calculation and Models used in calculating the Risk and Return of each Security, thereby suggesting the investor about the appropriate security in the Stock Market. In this course, the students will learn:Concept of Risk and ReturnCalculation of Risk and Return of SecuritiesAnalysis of Securities using Risk and ReturnPortfolio Risk and Portfolio ReturnPortfolio ManagementCapital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)Calculation of Equilibrium Return using CAPMEstimation of Value of the securities using CAPMArbitrage Pricing Theory (APT)Sharpe Index ModelIn Investment analysis, Risk means variability of possible returns associated with an investment. Risk refers to the chance that the actual return from an investment will differ from the expected return. Between equities and debentures, equities are more risky.Risk and UncertaintyRisk is a situation where probabilities can be assigned to an event on the basis of facts and figures available regarding the decision, while uncertainty is a situation where either facts and figures are not available, or the probabilities can be assigned. Risk can be classified into Systematic Risk and Unsystematic Risk.i) Systematic Risk- Systematic Risk refers to that portion of variation in return caused by factors that affect the price of securities. The effect of systematic risk causes the price of all individual shares to move in the same direction. This movement is generally caused due to economic, social and political factors. When the stock market is bullish, prices of all stocks indicate rising trend and when the market is bearish, the prices show declining trends. Systematic risk can be classified into:a) Market Risk-The Market risk refers to variability in return due to change in market price of investment. In bull phase, market price of all shares tend to increase while in bear phase the prices tend to decline.b) Interest Rate Risk- The interest rate risk refers to the variability in return caused by the change in level of interest rates. When the interest rate rises, the price of existing securities fall and vice-versa.c) Inflation Risk- The Inflation risk arises due to the uncertainty of purchasing power of the amount to be received from investments in future.ii) Unsystematic Risk- Unsystematic Risk refers to that portion of the risk which is caused due to factors unique or related to a firm or industry. The unsystematic risk can be eliminated or reduced by diversification of portfolio. The Unsystematic Risk is the change in price of stocks due to factors which are particular to stock.Unsystematic Risk can be classified into:a) Business Risk- Business Risk is that portion of the Unsystematic Risk caused by the operating environment of the business.Business Risk is further classified into:1) Internal Business Risk- Internal Business Risk is associated with the operational efficiency of the firm in sales ,HRD,R & D,etc.2) External Business Risk- External Business Risk is the result of operating conditions imposed on the firm by circumstances beyond its control. The external business factors are social , regulatory factors, monetary and fiscal policies of the government.b) Financial Risk- Financial Risk refers to the degree of financial leverage or degree of loans used by the firm in the capital structure. Thus, Financial Risk is associated with the capital structure of the firm. Higher the degree of debt financing, greater is the degree of financial risk.Concept of ReturnThe Return is the motivating force and the principal reward in the investment process. So, every investor prefers a higher return. The investment decisions are based on EXPECTED RETURN. The Expected Return is the return which the investor anticipates to earn over a period of time. The expected return may be in the form of Dividends, Bonus, Interests, Capital Gain,etc.The HISTORICAL or REALIZED RETURN is the return which was actually earned in the form of dividends, interests and capital gains due to price changes. It may be more or less than the Expected Return.

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