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所在平台: Udemy |
课程主页: https://www.udemy.com/course/measuring-cost-risk-using-monte-carlo-simulation/
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Coursera 课程《使用蒙特卡洛模拟衡量成本风险》内容总结 本课程旨在教授如何测量建筑项目的成本风险。 **第一部分：风险管理基础** * 回顾风险管理的基础知识。 * 在企业财务决策的背景下介绍项目目标。 * 定义风险概念，并介绍风险管理流程。 **第二部分：成本风险评估与蒙特卡洛模拟** * 介绍许多组织中常用的成本风险确定方法，并指出其不足之处。 * 定义蒙特卡洛分析（Monte Carlo Analysis），并介绍基于最佳实践的蒙特卡洛分析流程。 **第三部分：蒙特卡洛模型构建** * 使用项目总结报告作为基础进行蒙特卡洛分析。 * 识别关键成本账户及其相关风险。 * 创建蒙特卡洛模型，并进行 VBA 模拟的准备工作。 **第四部分：VBA 编程实现** * 主要在 VBA 界面中进行，开发一个子程序以收集用户输入的迭代次数。 * 定义一个函数来计算每次迭代的总成本。 * 开发另一个子程序来计算所有迭代次数的参数。 * 进行测试以确保一切按预期工作。 * Excel 文件和 VBA 代码可在最后一课下载。 **重要提示：** 本课程仅供教育目的。如需实际项目应用，请咨询专业人士。
The objective of this course is to present how to measure the cost risks associated to a building project.In the first part of the course will be reviewed the fundamentals on risk management. Project objectives will be presented in the context of corporate financial decision. The concept of risk will be defined, and risk management processed will be presented.In the second part, will be presented how cost risks and usually determined in a good number of organizations. And inconsistencies of this approach will be pointed. Then Monte Carlo analysis will be defined, and its procedure based on recognized best practices will be presented.In the third part, as sample project summary report will be used as the basis of the Monte Carlo Analysis. Critical cost accounts will be identified, as well as their related risks. Then will followed the creation of a Monte Carlo Model and some preparations required for VBA simulation.In the last part, mostly in the VBA interface, a sub procedure will be developed to collect the number of iterations from the user, a function defined to calculate the total cost for each iteration and another sub procedure for calculating the parameters for the entire number of iterations. Testing will be done to ensure everything works as expected. Excel File and VBA Codes can be downloaded in the last lectureThis course is meant for educational purpose only. Please consult a professional if you need to apply this to an actual project.
