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所在平台: Udemy |
课程主页: https://www.udemy.com/course/introduction-to-risk-a-practical-example/
课程评论：没有评论
## Coursera 课程总结：《@RISK 入门：Excel 上的蒙特卡洛模拟》 本课程是关于 @RISK（Palisade 公司基于 Excel 的蒙特卡洛模拟软件）的入门介绍。通过本课程，您将学习如何为任何类型的模型设置、运行模拟并解读结果。 课程以一个简单的商业案例——**Joe 的小型住宅外墙维修承包业务**——为例，逐步讲解如何利用 @RISK 做出明智且一致的业务决策。 **Joe 的业务背景：** Joe 经营着一家小型承包业务，主要承接住宅外墙的维修、油漆、屋顶维修和园林绿化项目。他和他另外两名亲戚是公司的主要劳动力。 * **当前业务能力：** 在非冬季月份，他平均每月能服务 8 个合同；在冬季月份（12 月至 1 月），他平均每月能服务 4 个合同。 * **应对需求增加：** 当需求增加时，他可以按较高的、但可变的每小时费率雇佣额外人手。 **Joe 面临的决策：** **1. 雇佣第三名固定员工（扩大规模）：** * **潜在优势：** * 增加服务能力，非冬季月份平均每月可服务 10 个合同。 * 提高总年收入，通过服务更多客户。 * 降低因外包人手而产生的昂贵可变成本。 * **潜在劣势：** * 冬季月份（可能连续三个亏损月份）面临更高的固定成本。 **2. 裁减一名亲戚（缩小规模）：** * **潜在优势：** * 降低固定成本负担，尤其是在活动量较低的冬季月份。 * 雇佣所需灵活人手按小时计费。 * 选择可能相对不那么盈利，但更安全和更灵活。 * **潜在劣势：** * 服务能力下降，非冬季月份平均每月只能处理 7 个服务合同。 通过本课程，您将学习如何使用 @RISK 模拟这些不同的业务场景，量化其潜在风险和回报，从而帮助 Joe 做出最适合其业务的长期规划。
This is an introductory course to @RISK (Palisade's Monte Carlo simulation software on top of Excel). You will learn how to set up, run a simulation and interpret results for any type of model.We use an example of a simple business example: Joe runs a small contracting business repairing residential exteriors. We introduce the decisions he has to make. Step by step we explain how, by using @RISK, he is able to make sound and consistent decisions around his business.Joe runs a small contracting business repairing residential exteriors. He and his two cousins working for him mainly contract on painting jobs, roofs repairs and landscaping. On average, he is able to service 8 monthly contracts during non-winter months and 4 monthly contracts during winter months, December to January. If there is an increase in demand, he can contract additional manpower at a higher, yet variable, hourly rate.Preparing next year's plan, he is considering the possibility of hiring a third fixed employee on payroll. This would allow him to increase his offer and eventually be able to service an average of 10 contracts during non-winter months. By doing this, he would be able to increase his total annual revenue by servicing more customers and decrease the expensive variable cost when he needs to subcontract additional manpower. However, during winter, he would be tolled by a higher fixed cost, probably making him run on losses during three consecutive months.On the other hand, he is also considering downsizing his operations by excluding one of his cousins out of his payroll. With a downsized operation, he could only be able to handle an average of 7 service contracts per month on non-winter months. This would lighten up his fixed cost burden during the low activity winter months. He would be able to hire any required flexible manpower at a per hour basis. Evidently, this option could be less profitable but more secure and flexible.
