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所在平台: Udemy |
课程主页: https://www.udemy.com/course/futures-foresight-introduction/
课程评论：没有评论
《未来与展望入门》课程总结 本课程旨在介绍未来学和展望的基本理念与方法，尤其适合对变革性创新感兴趣的学习者。 **核心目标：** 帮助学习者更好地理解快速变化且日益复杂的世界，认识到通过对各种可能未来的理解，可以塑造积极的故事，从而采取有效行动来应对未来的挑战与机遇。 **课程主要内容：** * **第一部分：未来学基础：** 探讨未来学的基本概念，以及如何将未来视为一个开放的空间，为变革创造新的叙事。 * **第二部分：视野扫描与三层视野框架：** 介绍视野扫描（horizon scanning）的概念，并运用三层视野框架（three horizons framework），说明如何通过视野扫描来理解复杂动态的环境。 * **第三部分：情景与叙事构建：** 学习如何识别趋势，并利用这些趋势构建可能的情景（scenarios）和叙事（narratives），以期更好地预见和塑造未来。 **关键理念：** * **展望的重要性：** 在日益快速和复杂的世界中，有效的展望对于个人、组织和社会采取有意义的行动至关重要。 * **未来是可创造的：** 尽管世界在不断变化，但未来并非注定，而是可以通过我们讲述的故事来塑造的。 * **系统性思维：** 未来学运用系统性的过程来思考未来，通过构建可能的情景来洞察当下应采取的最佳行动。 * **趋势观察与预测：** 未来学者通过观察当下趋势来预见未来，但同时认识到未来是尚未存在的，需要通过创造性的叙事来构建。
As individuals, organizations, and societies to take action we are required to think about the future and what may arise in the short and long term.Thus effective foresight has always been important in human life, however today we find our world changing faster and with greater complexity unfolding.The systems we form part of - our cities, our jobs, the natural environment, and technology - are all shifting radically, making it very difficult to look ahead and prepare for future challenges and opportunities.The result is that we often become somewhat fatalistic, thinking that we cannot know or do anything about our future, that the future is determined in some way and out of our hands to shape.The core purpose of futuring and foresight activities is to better make sense of a changing world. To think about how we may use an understanding of possible futures as an asset for shaping constructive stories that will enable us to take actions today to best meet these changes.Futuring is the use of a systematic process to think about the future; framing and forming possible scenarios for the future to gain insight into the best actions to take in the present.Futurists use what they see in the present as a view on to the future; they watch trends and try to envision what may happen, but they are also aware that the future does not yet exist and thus is something to be created through the stories we tell.This course is here to help you learn the basic ideas and methods of futuring - it is particularly for those interested in transformational innovation.The first section explores the foundational ideas of futuring and ways to turn the future into an open space for new stories of change.The second section covers horizon scanning and the three horizons framework illustrating how horizon scanning helps us better make sense of complex dynamic environments.The final section is on scenarios and narrative building to identify trends and try to use them to shape possible scenarios and narratives about the future.
