Forecast Crypto Market with Time Series & Machine Learning

所在平台: Udemy

课程主页: https://www.udemy.com/course/forecast-crypto-market-with-time-series-machine-learning/

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课程名称:使用时间序列和机器学习预测加密货币市场 课程概述:欢迎参加“使用Prophet、时间序列和机器学习预测加密货币市场”课程。该课程为一个基于项目的全面学习课程,您将逐步学习如何对加密货币市场数据集进行复杂分析和可视化。本课程主要侧重于使用三种不同的预测模型来预测加密货币价格,这些模型包括Prophet模型、时间序列分解和机器学习,特别是我们将使用随机森林(Random Forest)和XGBoost。编程语言将使用Python,并结合使用Pandas进行数据建模、Numpy进行复杂计算、Matplotlib进行数据可视化以及TensorFlow,这是一种用于构建和训练各种深度学习模型的开源机器学习库。数据源将从Kaggle下载加密市场数据集。 在介绍部分,您将学习加密货币市场预测的基本原则,包括了解市场特征和将要使用的预测模型。接下来,您将学习Prophet模型和时间序列分解的基础数学,逐步指导您分析案例研究并进行基本计算。本节旨在为您在预测项目中实施这些模型做好知识和理解的准备。随后,您还将了解几种可能影响加密货币市场的因素,如流动性、市场资本、交易量和流通供应。 学习完所有关于加密货币市场预测的必要知识后,我们将开始项目。首先,您将逐步学习如何设置Google Colab作为本项目的集成开发环境(IDE),并学习如何从Kaggle找到和下载数据集。在准备好IDE和数据集后,您将进入课程的主要部分,即项目部分。项目包含三个部分:第一部分使用Prophet模型预测加密货币市场,第二部分使用时间序列分解模型,第三部分使用机器学习模型,特别是随机森林和XGBoost预测加密货币市场。最后,在课程结束时,您还将学习如何进行模型评估,以评估预测模型的准确性和质量。 在开始课程之前,我们需要问自己几个问题:为什么要学习预测加密货币市场?这种预测会准确吗?这些问题的答案有很多。首先,加密货币和大数据技术在过去几年中发展非常迅速,因此,将两者结合起来听起来是个好主意。此外,整合大数据技术,尤其是机器学习和时间序列,将使我们能够做出更准确的数据驱动预测。而且,从历史数据中识别模式和趋势可以作为预测未来的良好指标。然而,无论您的预测模型多么先进或准确,您仍需意识到,预测中没有百分之百的准确性。最后,学习如何进行预测是一项非常有价值的知识和技能,因为您可以将相同的概念应用到股票市场、商品市场,甚至房地产市场。 在本课程中,您可以期待学习以下内容: - 加密货币市场预测的基本原则与特征。 - Prophet预测模型的数学和逻辑。 - 时间序列分解模型的数学和逻辑。 - 使用随机森林算法拆分数据集并计算基尼不纯度。 - 影响加密货币市场的多种因素。 - 如何查找和下载Kaggle上的数据集。 - 如何将数据上传到Google Colab。 - 如何清理缺失值和重复值的数据集。 - 如何检测数据集中的离群值。 - 如何分析和可视化每日和年度价格波动。 - 如何检测市场趋势并计算移动平均。 - 如何找到价格和交易量之间的相关性,使用TensorFlow。 - 如何使用Prophet构建预测模型。 - 如何使用时间序列分解构建预测模型。 - 如何使用机器学习构建预测模型,特别是随机森林和XGBoost算法。 - 如何使用预测区间覆盖、成分分析和特征重要度分析评估预测模型的准确性和质量。 附加项目: 1. 使用Spacy分析市场情绪:通过处理和理解文本数据分析市场情绪,例如分析金融新闻和社交媒体,帮助做出基于市场心理的明智决策。 2. 使用支持向量回归(SVR)预测价格:运用SVR算法预测价格,找到最佳拟合数据的超平面,从而最小化预测误差,帮助您做出数据驱动的价格预测。

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Welcome to Forecasting Cryptocurrency Market with Prophet, Time Series & Machine Learning course. This is a comprehensive project based course where you will learn step by step on how to perform complex analysis and visualization on cryptocurrency market dataset. This course will be focusing mainly on forecasting cryptocurrency prices using three different forecasting models, those are Prophet, time series decomposition, and machine learning particularly we are going to be utilizing Random Forest and XGBoost. Regarding programming language, we are going to use Python alongside with several libraries like Pandas for performing data modeling, Numpy for performing complex calculations, Matplotlib for visualizing the data, and TensorFlow which is an open-source machine learning library used for building and training various deep learning models. Meanwhile, for the data source, we are going to download the crypto market dataset from Kaggle. In the introduction session, you will learn basic fundamentals of cryptocurrency market forecasting, such as getting to know the crypto market characteristics and forecasting models that will be used. Then, continue by learning the basic mathematics behind prophet model and time series decomposition where you will be guided step by step on how to analyze case study and perform basic calculation. This session is intended to prepare your knowledge and understanding before implementing these models in the forecasting project. Afterward, you will also learn several factors which can potentially impact the cryptocurrency market, such as liquidity, market cap, transaction volume, and circulating supply. Once you've learnt all necessary knowledge about crypto market forecasting, we will begin the project, firstly you will be guided step by step on how to set up Google Colab since we are going to use it as the IDE in this project, then you will also learn how to find and download datasets from Kaggle. After preparing the IDE and datasets, you will enter the main section of the course which is the project section. The project will be consisted of three parts, the first one is forecasting cryptocurrency market using Prophet model, the second one is forecasting cryptocurrency market using time series decomposition model, meanwhile, the third one is forecasting cryptocurrency market using machine learning models specifically Random Forest and XGBoost. Lastly, at the end of the course, you will also learn how to perform model evaluations to assess the accuracy and quality of your forecasting model.First of all, before getting into the course, we need to ask ourselves these questions: why should we learn to forecast the crypto market? Is it going to be accurate? Well, there are many answers to those questions. Firstly, both cryptocurrency and big data technology have advanced very rapidly in the past few years, therefore, combining both sounds like a brilliant idea. In addition to that, integrating big data technology especially machine learning and time series will enable us to make more accurate data driven based predictions. Not only that, identifying patterns and trends from the historical data can be used as a good indicator to forecast what will happen in the future. Nonetheless, no matter how advanced or accurate your forecasting model is, you still need to be aware that there is no such thing as 100% accuracy when it comes to forecasting. Last but not least, learning how to forecast can be very valuable knowledge and skill sets since you will be able to implement the same exact concept to other markets like stock market, commodity market, or even real estate market.Below are things that you can expect to learn from the course:Learn basic fundamentals of cryptocurrency market forecasting, such as getting to know crypto market characteristics and forecasting models that will be usedLearn math and logics behind prophet forecasting model, such as getting to know trend factor, seasonality component, and holiday componentLearn math and logics behind time series decomposition model, such as getting to know trend component, seasonal component, and residual componentLearn how to split dataset using Random Forest algorithm and learn how to calculate Gini ImpurityLearn several factors that can potentially impact cryptocurrency market, such as circulating supply, transaction volume, liquidity, market cap, and securityLearn how to find and download datasets from KaggleLearn how to upload data to Google Colab StudioLearn how to clean datasets from missing values and duplicate valuesLearn how to detect outliers in the datasetLearn how to analyse and visualise daily and annual price volatilityLearn how to detect market trend and calculate moving averageLearn how to find correlation between price and volume using TensorFlowLearn how to build forecasting model using ProphetLearn how to build forecasting model using time series decompositionLearn how to build forecasting model using machine learning, specifically Random Forest and XGBoost algorithmLearn how to evaluate the accuracy and quality of the forecasting models using prediction interval coverage, component analysis, and feature importance analysisAdditional ProjectsAnalyzing Market Sentiment Using SpacyIn this project, you'll use Spacy, a powerful natural language processing (NLP) library, to analyze market sentiment by processing and understanding text data. By analyzing financial news, social media, and other sources of market-related text, you can determine whether the sentiment is positive, negative, or neutral, helping you make informed decisions based on market psychology.Forecasting Price Using Support Vector Regression (SVR)In this project, you'll apply Support Vector Regression (SVR), a machine learning algorithm, to forecast prices based on historical data. SVR is particularly useful for predicting continuous values, like stock prices or market trends, by finding the optimal hyperplane that best fits the data and minimizes prediction errors, helping you make data-driven price forecasts.

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