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所在平台: Udemy |
课程主页: https://www.udemy.com/course/forecast-business-outcomes/
课程评论：没有评论
课程名称：使用蒙特卡洛分析预测商业结果 课程概述： 在本课程中，我们将以“翻转物业”为例，探索如何利用蒙特卡洛分析来有效预测商业利润。您可能会考虑在最佳街道上购买最差的房子，通过改造将其变为最佳房子，以实现盈利。您将学习如何评估购买成本、改造成本和销售价格的最大值和最小值，以及其他所有可能的费用和项目所需时间。通过理解这些变量如何影响您的盈利计算，您将能够建立多个场景来提出各种“如果”问题，例如“如果项目进行中市场崩溃，会发生什么？”但您可能会困惑于如何选择场景以及需要构建多少种情境。 想象一下，如果您可以将所有已知数据输入模型，并让计算机生成数千个测试各种参数组合的场景，这样您就能清晰地了解可以实现的最小和最大利润，甚至了解80%的利润结果集中在哪里，以及您对任何所选利润结果的信心程度。这样的工具能够减轻您在商业规划中的忧虑，帮助您更好地规划项目，提高投资回报率。 本课程将使用Excel中的标准功能，无需购买插件、编写宏或学习特殊编码，同时我们会提供示范Excel文件，帮助您快速入门。我们将深入讲解数学原理，但学习这些理论并不是本课程的必需，您无需通过考试。我们将教您如何在Excel中构建自己的模型，并展示如何利用这种技术来制定我们的商业购买策略。 通过本课程，您将获得实用工具和实用技巧，帮助您在物业翻转及其他商业项目中做出明智的决策。
Suppose you are flipping a property. You buy the worst house in the best street to transform it into the best house and sell at a profit. How will you work out your profit? Will you estimate the maximum and minimum for the purchase cost, the improvement cost, and the selling price? What about all the other costs, and the time the project could take. .and the time it could take to sell? How will you process all these variables in your calculation? You could build a few scenarios to ask "what if" questions, like "what if the bottom drops out of the market mid project?" But how will you choose them, and how many scenarios will you build? What if you could plug everything you know into a model and get a computer to build you thousands of scenarios that test every combination of parameters? What if the computer could tell you the minimum and maximum profit you can achieve? What if the computer could tell you where 80% of the profit outcomes lie? What if the computer could tell you how confident you can be in any profit outcome you choose? Would that take a load of worry off your business planning? Would that help you plan tighter projects? Or improve your return on investment across a portfolio of projects? This is what this course delivers. And it uses standard functions in Excel so you don't have to buy add-ins, or write macros, or learn special coding. What is more, we'll give you the Excel to get you started. We'll use a property flip as our example, and go behind the scenes to explain the mathematics - but you don't have to learn this or pass an exam. We'll show you how to do this in Excel and give you a working spreadsheet. And we'll show you how to use the Excel to build your own models. Then we'll show you how we use this technique to work out our strategy for buying businesses.
