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所在平台: Udemy |
课程主页: https://www.udemy.com/course/choosing-an-appropriate-distribution/
课程评论：没有评论
课程名称：选择合适的分布 概述：本课程特别适合当前使用@RISK的用户，无论是初学者还是专家，业务及金融分析师、经济学家、统计学家、科学研究人员均可从中获益。对于希望了解@RISK作为一种一般模拟方法论的学生来说，本课程同样有很大帮助。课程旨在回答建模者在构建模型时常常遇到的一个普遍问题：如何为他们正在构建的蒙特卡罗模拟模型的变量或“移动部分”选择合适的分布。GIGO原则（“垃圾进，垃圾出”）在此发挥着重要作用。使用合适的分布构建的模型能够很好地反映变量的统计特性，从而形成一个强健的模型，可以经受现实检验；而选择不当的分布则会导致模型脆弱且值得怀疑。课程开始时通过引入决策树的结构来帮助决策多个分布的选择。统计分布函数的世界是无穷无尽的，@RISK提供了大约97种不同的分布供用户选择。此外，学员还将学会如何创建自己的分布。
Current @RISK users, both novices and experts, business and financial analysts, economists, statisticians, scientific researchers using @RISK or any other Monte Carlo simulation platform may greatly benefit by taking this course. Students who also want to be introduced to @RISK as a general simulation methodology will benefit from this course.It is intended to answer the common question modelers have whenever they are building a model: How to choose appropriate distributions for the variables, or "moving parts" of a Monte Carlo simulation model they are attempting to build. The principle of GIGO ("garbage in, garbage out") applies here dramatically well. Build a model with appropriate distributions that clearly reflect the statistical nature of your variables and you will end up with a robust model to withstand reality testing. Build a model with lousily chosen distributions and your model will be as weak and questionable as any of your input variables.This course starts by introducing a decision tree as a structure to help decide on multiple distributions. The world of statistical distribution functions is endless. @RISK uses some 97 different distribution functions to choose from. And this is not the end of it, since you can create, as we will show, your own distributions.
