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所在平台: Udemy |
课程主页: https://www.udemy.com/course/business-economics-business-cycle/
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本课程《商业经济学——经济周期》旨在帮助学习者理解经济周期及其对商业决策的影响。 课程内容涵盖： 1. **经济周期的定义**：解释经济周期（或称商业周期、贸易周期）是指经济活动总体水平在一段时间内的周期性波动，通常体现在国民生产总值、就业和收入等指标的变动中。 2. **经济周期的不同阶段**：详细描述经济周期的四个主要阶段： * **扩张（繁荣/上升期）**：国民产出及其他经济变量增加。 * **高峰**：经济周期的最高点。 * **收缩（衰退/下跌期）**：投资、就业水平下降。 * **谷底（萧条）**：经济衰退过程完成，经济活动严重收缩。 3. **经济周期的特征**：介绍经济学家如何利用各种经济活动的变动来衡量经济周期和预测经济走向，即“经济指标”。 4. **经济指标的分类**： * **先行指标**：在经济开始呈现特定模式或趋势之前发生变化的经济因素。 * **滞后指标**：在实际产出变化之后发生变化的变量。 * **同步指标（或称并发指标）**：与经济周期性运动同时发生或一致的经济指标。 5. **经济周期的一般原因**：探讨导致经济周期波动的各种理论和因素，包括： * **凯恩斯理论**：认为经济活动波动源于总有效需求的波动。 * **投资波动**：一些经济学家认为投资是总需求中最不稳定的组成部分，是经济周期 prime cause。 * **政府支出波动**：政府支出及其对经济活动的影响也会导致商业波动。 * **宏观经济政策**：货币政策和财政政策也会引起经济周期。 * **货币因素**：**霍特雷（Hawtrey）**认为贸易周期是纯粹的货币现象，未经计划的货币供应量变化可能导致经济波动。 * **预期与情绪**：**庇古（Pigou）**认为现代商业活动基于商业界的预期，并受到乐观或悲观情绪波浪的影响。 * **创新**：**熊彼特（Schumpeter）**认为贸易周期是由于创新不时地在经济体系中发生而引起的。 6. **经济周期在商业决策中的相关性**：理解经济周期所处的阶段及其对当前和未来商业活动的影响，有助于企业更好地预测市场并做出更敏锐的反应。 通过本课程的学习，学员将能够深入理解经济周期的运作机制，并将其应用于实际的商业决策中，以应对经济环境的变化。
BUSINESS CYCLESAt the end of this Chapter, you should be able to: 1. Explain the Meaning of Business Cycles. 2. Describe the Different Phases of Business Cycles. 3. Explain the Features of Business Cycles. 4. Explain the General Causes behind these Cycles. 5. Elucidate the relevance of Business Cycles in Business Decision Making.SUMMARY1. The rhythmic fluctuations in aggregate economic activity that an economy experiences over a period of time are called business cycles or trade cycles and are manifested in fluctuations in measures of aggregate economic activity such as gross national product, employment and income. 2. A typical business cycle has four distinct phases namely, - Expansion (also called boom or upswing) characterized by increase in national output and all other economic variables. - Peak of boom or prosperity refers to the top or the highest point of the business cycle. - Contraction (also called downs-wing or recession) when there is fall in the levels of investment, employment. - Trough or depression occurs when the process of recession is complete and there is severe contraction in the economic activities. 3. Economists use changes in a variety of activities to measure the business cycle and to predict where the economy is headed towards. These are called indicators. 4. A leading indicator is a measurable economic factor that changes before the economy starts to follow a particular pattern or trend. i.e. they change before the real output changes. 5. Variables that change after real output changes are called ‘Lagging indicators'. 6. Coincident economic indicators, also called concurrent indicators, coincide or occur simultaneously with the business-cycle movements.7. According to Keynes, fluctuations in economic activities are due to fluctuations in aggregate effective demand. 8. According to some economists, fluctuations in investments are the prime cause of business cycles. Investment spending is considered to be the most volatile component of the aggregate demand. 9. Fluctuations in government spending with its impact on aggregate economic activity result in business fluctuations. 10. Macroeconomic policies, (monetary and fiscal policies) also cause business cycles. 11. According to Hawtrey, trade cycle is a purely monetary phenomenon. Unplanned changes in the supply of money may cause business fluctuation in an economy. 12. According to Pigou, modern business activities are based on the anticipations of business community and are affected by waves of optimism or pessimism. 13. According to Schumpeter, trade cycles occur as a result of innovations which take place in the system from time to time. 14. Understanding what phase of the business cycle an economy is in and what implications the current economic conditions have for their current and future business activity, helps businesses to better anticipate the market and to respond with greater alertness.
