Managing Uncertainty in Marketing Analytics

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课程主页: https://www.coursera.org/archive/uncertainty-marketing-decisions

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课程简介

Emory University

课程大纲

Building on the basics of randomness and probability discussed in Module 1, we examine the use of Monte Carlo simulations for incorporating randomness into business problems. Using Microsoft Excel, we will build a tool that conducts a Monte Carlo simulation. We will use this tool to evaluate the best course of action for a particular business problem.

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Marketers must make the best decisions based on the information presented to them. Rarely will they have all the information necessary to predict what consumers will do with complete certainty. By incorporating uncertainty into the decisions that they make, they can anticipate a wide range of possible outcomes and recognize the extent of uncertainty on the decisions that they make. In Incorporating Uncertainty into Marketing Decisions, learners will become familiar with different methods to recognize sources of uncertainty that may affect the marketing decisions they ultimately make. We eschew specialized software and provide learners with the foundational knowledge they need to develop sophisticated marketing models in a basic spreadsheet environment. Topics include the development and application of Monte Carlo simulations, and the use of probability distributions to characterize uncertainty.

管理营销分析中的不确定性:营销人员必须根据提供给他们的信息做出最佳决策。他们很少会拥有必要的所有信息来完全肯定地预测消费者的行为。通过将不确定性纳入他们做出的决策中,他们可以预期各种可能的结果并认识到他们做出的决策的不确定性程度。在将不确定性纳入营销决策中时,学习者将熟悉各种方法,以识别可能影响最终决策的不确定性来源。我们避免使用专门的软件,并为学习者提供在基本电子表格环境中开发复杂的营销模型所需的基础知识。主题包括蒙特卡洛模拟的开发和应用,以及使用概率分布来表征不确定性。

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