Think Again III: How to Reason Inductively

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Duke University

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Welcome to Think Again: How to Reason Inductively! This course is the third in a series of four courses jointly titled Think Again: How to Reason and Argue. We are excited that you are taking this course, and we hope that you will take all four courses in the series, because there is a great deal of important material to learn.

In the series as a whole, you learn how to analyze and evaluate arguments and how to avoid common mistakes in reasoning. These important skills will be useful to you in deciding what to believe and what to do in all areas of your life.

The first part of this course introduces the series and the course. It also clarifies some peculiarities you may find with this course. We encourage you to watch the "Introduction to the Course" video first as it will help you learn more from the materials that come later.

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How to Reason Inductively Think Again: How to Reason and Argue Reasoning is important. This series of four short courses will teach you how to do it well. You will learn simple but vital rules to follow in thinking about any topic at all and common and tempting mistakes to avoid in reasoning. We will discuss how to identify, analyze, and evaluate arguments by other people (including politicians, used car salesmen, and teachers) and how to construct arguments of your own in order to help you decide what to believe or what to do. These skills will be useful in dealing with whatever matters most to you. Courses at a Glance: All four courses in this series are offered through sessions which run every four weeks. We suggest sticking to the weekly schedule to the best of your ability. If for whatever reason you fall behind, feel free to re-enroll in the next session.We also suggest that you start each course close to the beginning of a month in order to increase the number of peers in the discussion forums who are working on the same material as you are. While each course can be taken independently, we suggest you take the four courses in order. Course 1 - Think Again I: How to Understand Arguments Course 2 - Think Again II: How to Reason Deductively Course 3 - Think Again III: How to Reason Inductively Course 4 - Think Again IV: How to Avoid Fallacies About This Course in the Series: Think Again: How to Reason Inductively Want to solve a murder mystery? What caused your computer to fail? Who can you trust in your everyday life? In this course, you will learn what distinguishes inductive arguments from deductive arguments and then how to analyze and assess five common forms of inductive arguments: generalizations from samples, applications of generalizations, inference to the best explanation, arguments from analogy, and causal reasoning. The course closes by showing how probability can be used to help us make decisions of all sorts. Suggested Readings Students who want more detailed explanations or additional exercises or who want to explore these topics in more depth should consult Understanding Arguments: An Introduction to Informal Logic, Ninth Edition, Concise, Chapters 8-12, by Walter Sinnott-Armstrong and Robert Fogelin. Course Format Each week will be divided into multiple video segments that can be viewed separately or in groups. There will be short ungraded quizzes after each segment (to check comprehension) and a longer graded quiz at the end of the course.

再想一想III:如何归纳推理:如何归纳推理 再想一想:如何推理和争论 推理很重要。本系列的四门短期课程将教您如何做好。您将学习简单但至关重要的规则,以完全思考任何主题,并避免在推理中遇到的常见和诱人错误。我们将讨论如何识别,分析和评估其他人(包括政客,二手车销售人员和老师)的论据,以及如何构建自己的论据,以帮助您决定相信什么或做什么。这些技能将有助于您处理最重要的事情。 课程一览: 本系列的所有四门课程均通过每四周运行一次的课程提供。我们建议尽您所能,坚持每周计划。如果由于任何原因而落后,请随时重新注册下一个会话。我们还建议您在每个月的开始之前开始每门课程,以增加正在讨论的论坛中的同行人数。和您一样的材料。虽然每门课程都可以独立学习,但我们建议您按顺序学习四门课程。 课程1-再想一想:如何理解争论 课程2-再思考II:如何演绎推理 课程3-再思考III:如何归纳推理 课程4-再思考IV:如何避免谬误 关于本系列课程: 再想一想:如何归纳推理 想解决谋杀之谜吗?是什么导致您的计算机出现故障?您可以信任谁?在本课程中,您将学习将归纳论证与演绎论证区分开的内容,然后学习如何分析和评估归纳论证的五种常见形式:样本的归纳,归纳的应用,对最佳解释的推论,类推的归因和因果推理。通过展示如何利用概率来帮助我们做出各种决策来结束本课程。 建议阅读 需要更详细的解释或更多练习或希望更深入地探讨这些主题的学生,应参阅Walter Sinnott-Armstrong和Robert Fogelin撰写的《理解论证:非正式逻辑入门》,第9版,简洁,第8-12章。 课程形式 每周将分为多个视频片段,可以分别或分组观看。每个部分后将进行简短的未分级测验(以检查理解能力),课程结束时将进行较长的分级测验。

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