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所在平台: Coursera |
课程主页: https://www.coursera.org/learn/wharton-decision-making-scenarios
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课程名称：决策制定与情景分析 课程概述：本课程旨在展示如何使用定量模型将数据转化为更好的商业决策。您将学习如何利用模型促进决策过程，以及如何结构化决策以获得最佳结果。由沃顿商学院两位备受赞誉的教授主讲，他们将逐步示范建模常见商业和金融情景的过程，从而显著提升您分析复杂问题和洞察不同选择的能力。在创建了现有现实、潜在风险和替代情景的模型后，您可以利用本课程中学到的决策工具和技术，为您的企业确定最佳解决方案。 课程大纲： 第一部分：评价标准：净现值（NPV） 描述：本模块介绍了选择投资项目的多种潜在标准，并探讨了最有效的标准：净现值（NPV）。通过具体例子，您将学习净现值的关键组成部分，包括货币时间价值和资本成本，NPV的主要效用，以及为何其在项目评估中比其他常用标准更为准确和有用。到模块结束时，您将能够解释为何净现值分析是接受或拒绝项目的合适标准，以及为何其他标准（如内含报酬率、回收期、投资回报率等）可能无法最大化价值。 第二部分：项目评估 描述：在本模块中，您将学习如何评估项目，重点分析与项目相关的增量税后现金流。您将通过具体示例使用替代情景测试这种方法的有效性。您将理解为何只有未来现金流是相关的，忽略财务成本，考虑所有附带影响，记住营运资本需求，考虑税务影响，忘记沉没成本，记住机会成本，使用期望现金流并进行敏感性分析。到模块结束时，您将能够更全面和有效地评估项目，重点建模公司税后现金流的变化，从而做出更具盈利性的决策。 第三部分：用财务术语表达商业战略 描述：本模块旨在让您了解商业活动、交易和事件如何转化为财务报表，包括资产负债表、利润表和现金流量表。您还将学习这三张报表是如何相互关联的，以及资产负债表和利润表如何帮助预测未来的现金流量表。到模块结束时，您将能够解释会计系统如何将商业活动转化为财务术语，并如何利用这些信息更好地预测未来现金流，从而以财务术语表达您的商业战略，并展示您拟议行动方案的“底线”。 第四部分：新产品价值 描述：在本模块中，您将把所学应用到新产品项目的分析中。您将学习如何规划实施新业务所需进行的商业活动、交易和事件，包括它们的时序。您还将学习如何设置电子表格以帮助进行预测，并在重新思考计划时自动重新计算。您将看到如何预测隐含的财务报表，并计算净现值（NPV）。到模块结束时，您将能够使用电子表格探索新项目可能面临的不同风险，并分析这些情景对NPV的影响，从而做出最具盈利性的数据驱动决策。
Part: 1
Title:Evaluation Criteria: Net Present Value
Description:This module was designed to introduce you to the many potential criteria for selecting investment projects, and to explore the most effective of these criteria: Net Present Value (NPV). Through the use of concrete examples, you'll learn the key components of Net Present Value, including the time value of money and the cost of capital, the main utility of NPV, and why it is ultimately more accurate and useful for evaluating projects than other commonly used criteria. By the end of this module, you'll be able to explain why net present value analysis is the appropriate criteria for choosing whether to accept or reject a project, and why other criteria, such as IRR, payback, ROI, etc. may not lead to decisions which maximize value.
Part: 2
Title:Evaluating Projects
Description:In this module, you'll learn how to evaluate a project with emphasis on analyzing the incremental after-tax cash flows associated with the project. You'll work through a concrete example using alternative scenarios to test the effectiveness of this method. You'll also learn why only future cash flows are relevant, why to ignore financial costs, include all incidental effects, remember working capital requirements, consider the effect of taxes, forget sunk costs, remember opportunity costs, use expected cash flows, and perform sensitivity analysis. By the end of this module, you'll be able to evaluate projects more thoroughly and effectively, with emphasis on how to model the change in the company’s after-tax cash flows, so that you can make more profitable decisions.
Part: 3
Title:Expressing Business Strategies in Financial Terms
Description:This module was designed to give you the opportunity to learn how business activities, transactions and events are translated into financial statements, including balance sheets, income statements, and cash flow statements. You'll also learn how these three statements are linked to each other, and how balance sheets and income statements can help forecast the future cash flow statements. By the end of this module, you'll be able to explain how accounting systems translate business activities into financial terms, and how to use this to better forecast future cash flows, so that you can express your business strategies in these financial terms, and show "the bottom line" for your proposed plan of action.
Part: 4
Title:New Product Value
Description:In this module, you'll apply what you’ve been learning to an analysis of a new product venture. You’ll learn how to map out a plan of the business activities, transactions and events that need to happen to implement the new venture, including their timing. You'll also learn how to set up a spreadsheet to help with forecasts, and to re-calculate things automatically as we re-think our plans. You'll see how to forecast out the implied financial statements, and calculate the Net Present Value (NPV). By the end of this module, you'll be able to use spreadsheets to explore different risks a venture may face, and analyze the implications of these scenarios for NPV, so that you can make the most profitable, data-driven decision possible.
This course is designed to show you how use quantitative models to transform data into better business decisions. You’ll learn both how to use models to facilitate decision-making and also how to structure decision-making for optimum results. Two of Wharton’s most acclaimed professors will show you the step-by-step processes of modeling common business and financial scenarios, so you can significantly improve your ability to structure complex problems and derive useful insights about alternatives. Once you’ve created models of existing realities, possible risks, and alternative scenarios, you can determine the best solution for your business or enterprise, using the decision-making tools and techniques you’ve learned in this course.
