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所在平台: Coursera |
课程主页: https://www.coursera.org/learn/uncertainty-marketing-decisions
课程评论：没有评论
课程名称：市场分析中的不确定性管理 概述：市场营销人员在决策时必须基于所得到的信息做出最佳选择。然而，他们很少拥有足够的信息来完全准确地预测消费者的行为。通过将不确定性纳入决策过程中，营销人员能够预见多种可能的结果，并认识到不确定性对其决策的影响。在《将不确定性纳入市场决策》课程中，学习者将熟悉识别可能影响营销决策的不确定性来源的不同方法。我们不依赖专业软件，而是提供学习者所需的基础知识，使其能够在基本的电子表格环境中开发复杂的市场模型。课程主题包括Monte Carlo模拟的发展与应用，以及使用概率分布来描述不确定性。 课程大纲： 1. 随机性与概率 - 描述：模块1着重于理解随机性在营销问题中的出现。您将学习结果概率计算的基本规则，并探讨这些规则如何应用于信息价值的确定。 2. 在Excel中进行Monte Carlo模拟 - 描述：在模块1中讨论的随机性和概率基础上，我们审视了使用Monte Carlo模拟将随机性纳入商业问题的应用。通过使用Microsoft Excel，我们将构建一个进行Monte Carlo模拟的工具，并利用该工具评估特定商业问题的最佳行动方案。 3. 使用概率分布建模不确定性 - 描述：在模块3中，我们探讨了使用概率分布作为描述不确定性的一种手段。首先，我们了解如何将不确定性纳入一般决策框架，然后关注可用于建模不确定性的不同概率分布，具体取决于数据的性质。我们研究利用Microsoft Excel中的功能，应用这些概率分布来评估事件发生的可能性。 4. 应用：设计扩展服务保修计划 - 描述：在模块3的概率分布讨论基础上，我们将这一知识应用于特定案例：扩展服务保修计划的设计。我们提供了业务问题的概述，并讨论如何使用Poisson分布将客户对保修计划的使用中的不确定性纳入考虑。通过使用Microsoft Excel，我们设计了一个电子表格工具，使用户能够调整服务计划的特性。在比较不同情景下的公司利润时，我们调查不同服务计划特性如何使风险在消费者和企业之间分配。
Name:Randomness and Probability
Description:Module 1 focuses on developing an understanding where randomness appears in marketing problems. You will learn basic rules for calculating the probability of outcomes. We will also examine how these rules can be applied to determine the value of information
Name:Conducting Monte Carlo Simulations in Excel
Description:Building on the basics of randomness and probability discussed in Module 1, we examine the use of Monte Carlo simulations for incorporating randomness into business problems. Using Microsoft Excel, we will build a tool that conducts a Monte Carlo simulation. We will use this tool to evaluate the best course of action for a particular business problem.
Name:Using Probability Distributions to Model Uncertainty
Description:In Module 3, we look at the use of probability distributions as a means of characterizing uncertainty. We initially look at how uncertainty is incorporated into a general decision making framework. We then turn our attention to different probability distributions that can be used to model uncertainty, depending on the nature of the data. We examine the application of these probability distributions to assess the likelihood of events using features within Microsoft Excel.
Name:Application: Designing Extended Service Warranty Plans
Description:Building the the discussion of probability distributions in Module 3, we apply this knowledge to a specific application: the design of extended service warranty plans. We provide an overview of the business problem and discuss how to incorporate uncertainty in customers' use of the warranty plan using the Poisson distribution. Using Microsoft Excel, we design a spreadsheet tool that enables a user to adjust features of the service plans. By comparing firm profit under different scenarios, we investigate how different features of the service plan result in risk being shared by the consumer and the firm.
Marketers must make the best decisions based on the information presented to them. Rarely will they have all the information necessary to predict what consumers will do with complete certainty. By incorporating uncertainty into the decisions that they make, they can anticipate a wide range of possible outcomes and recognize the extent of uncertainty on the decisions that they make. In Incorporating Uncertainty into Marketing Decisions, learners will become familiar with different methods to recognize sources of uncertainty that may affect the marketing decisions they ultimately make. We eschew specialized software and provide learners with the foundational knowledge they need to develop sophisticated marketing models in a basic spreadsheet environment. Topics include the development and application of Monte Carlo simulations, and the use of probability distributions to characterize uncertainty.
