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所在平台: Coursera |
课程主页: https://www.coursera.org/learn/mathematics-sport
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课程名称：金钱球背后的数学 课程概述：学习如何运用概率、数学和统计学帮助棒球、足球和篮球队提升球员和阵容选择以及比赛策略。 课程大纲： 1. **课程介绍** 课程开始前的说明。 2. **模块1：赢输记录预测** 学习如何根据进球数预测球队的赢输记录，介绍多元回归以及其在棒球打击评价中的应用。同时讨论Excel中的数据表、VLOOKUP、MATCH和INDEX函数。 3. **模块2：Excel技能培训** 学习重要的Excel工具，包括范围名称、数据表、条件格式、数据透视表和COUNTIFS、SUMIFS、AVERAGEIFS系列函数。 4. **模块3：蒙特卡罗模拟** 学习蒙特卡罗模拟及其在评估棒球队进攻及著名的DEFLATEGATE争议中的应用。 5. **模块4：棒球场上决策评价** 学习如何评价棒球守备、投手以及比赛中的决策。讨论WAR（替代胜利数）和球场因素的数学原理。 6. **模块5：NFL团队分析** 了解随机变量的基本概念，学习如何用回归分析NFL球队获胜的因素，解析NFL四分卫评分系统，并探讨“热手”理论的神话。使用Excel文本函数及每次进攻期望分数分析足球队的进攻效果。 7. **模块6：博弈论与策略** 学习双人零和博弈论在足球和足球点球策略中的应用，分析NBA射击以及胜利因素的四个概念。 8. **模块7：篮球高级概念** 学习调整后的正负值、ESPN的RPM、SportVu数据，以及NBA比赛中的决策制定。 9. **模块8：体育团队评级与投注** 学习如何利用比赛结果评级体育团队并设定点差，模拟NCAA篮球锦标赛。 10. **模块9：NASCAR与博彩概念** 学习如何评级NASCAR车手，并介绍如Money line、Props Bets等体育博彩概念及博彩系统的评估。 11. **模块10：体育博彩优化** 学习如何利用凯利增长优化体育博彩、均值回归解释博彩错失，并优化每日幻想体育阵容，以及高尔夫分析的讨论。 12. **期末考试** 期末考试包含10个问题，需下载并在考前打开Excel文件，答对6题以上即可通过。
Name:Before you start...
Description:
Name:Module 1
Description:You will learn how to predict a team’s won loss record from the number of runs, points, or goals scored by a team and its opponents. Then we will introduce you to multiple regression and show how multiple regression is used to evaluate baseball hitters. Excel data tables, VLOOKUP, MATCH, and INDEX functions will be discussed.
Name:Module 2
Description:You will concentrate on learning important Excel tools including Range Names, Tables, Conditional Formatting, PivotTables, and the family of COUNTIFS, SUMIFS, and AVERAGEIFS functions. You will concentrate on learning important Excel tools including Range Names, Tables, Conditional Formatting, PivotTables, and the family of COUNTIFS, SUMIFS, and AVERAGEIFS functions.
Name:Module 3
Description:You will learn how Monte Carlo simulation works and how it can be used to evaluate a baseball team’s offense and the famous DEFLATEGATE controversy.
Name:Module 4
Description:You will learn how to evaluate baseball fielding, baseball pitchers, and evaluate in game baseball decision-making. The math behind WAR (Wins above Replacement) and Park Factors will also be discussed. Modern developments such as infield shifts and pitch framing will also be discussed.
Name:Module 5
Description:You will learn basic concepts involving random variables (specifically the normal random variable, expected value, variance and standard deviation.) You will learn how regression can be used to analyze what makes NFL teams win and decode the NFL QB rating system. You will also learn that momentum and the “hot hand” is mostly a myth. Finally, you will use Excel text functions and the concept of Expected Points per play to analyze the effectiveness of a football team’s play calling.
Name:Module 6
Description:You will learn how two-person zero sum game theory sheds light on football play selection and soccer penalty kick strategies. Our discussion of basketball begins with an analysis of NBA shooting, box score based player metrics, and the Four Factor concept which explains what makes basketball teams win.
Name:Module 7
Description:You will learn about advanced basketball concepts such as Adjusted plus minus, ESPN’s RPM, SportVu data, and NBA in game decision-making.
Name:Module 8
Description:You will learn how to use game results to rate sports teams and set point spreads. Simulation of the NCAA basketball tournament will aid you in filling out your 2016 bracket. Final 4 is in Houston!
Name:Module 9
Description:You will learn how to rate NASCAR drivers and get an introduction to sports betting concepts such as the Money line, Props Bets, and evaluation of gambling betting systems.
Name:Module 10
Description:You will learn how Kelly Growth can optimize your sports betting, how regression to the mean explains the SI cover jinx and how to optimize a daily fantasy sports lineup. We close with a discussion of golf analytics.
Name:Final Exam
Description:Final exam has 10 questions. Please download and open Excel files before taking the exam. You will be referred to Excel files during the exam. Each question is wort 1 point. You need to answer 6 questions or more correctly to pass the exam.
Learn how probability, math, and statistics can be used to help baseball, football and basketball teams improve, player and lineup selection as well as in game strategy.
