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所在平台: Coursera |
课程主页: https://www.coursera.org/learn/judgmental-business-forecasting-in-excel
课程评论：没有评论
课程名称：Excel中的判断性商业预测 课程概述：本课程旨在扩展您在商业预测方面的专业知识，基于商业预测专业化的前两门课程——时间序列模型和回归模型。我们将探讨判断性预测的角色，尤其是在量化预测方法受到限制时，如何生成更深入的商业洞察。课程中将介绍一些结构化方法，以使用商业指标、主观评估方法和探索性方法来创建判断性商业预测。每种方法都将分析如何利用Excel来实现这些预测，以及如何通过Excel可视化我们的预测结果。同时，我们还将关注在商业预测中偏见的作用。 课程大纲： 1. **欢迎和关键信息**：介绍课程内容及其重要性，强调判断性预测在商业预测中的应用。 2. **商业指标**：探索商业指标在创建商业预测中的作用，特别是在周期性成分判断时，通过预测商业周期的转折，了解如何利用Excel实现这些洞察。 3. **主观评估方法**：学习三种不同的主观评估方法，包括销售力量综合方法、执行意见的评审和主观概率评估，了解如何利用Excel执行这些方法。 4. **探索性方法**：研究两种不同的探索性方法，即德尔菲法和情景分析，学习如何运用Excel来实施这些方法。 5. **偏见与综合商业预测**：反思在进行商业预测时可能出现的偏见，并通过案例研究的评估，将所有主题整合在一起，应用判断原则来决定使用的预测方法，并利用判断性预测。 此课程将加深您对商业预测的理解，并提升您在Excel中应用这些方法的能力。
Name:Welcome and Critical Information
Description:In this course, we extend your business forecasting expertise from the first two courses of our Business Forecasting Specialisation on Time Series Models and Regression Models. We will explore the role of judgmental forecasting, when more quantitative forecasting methods have limitations, and we need to generate further business insights. We will be exploring some structured methodologies to create judgmental business forecasts using Business Indicators, Subjective Assessment Methods, and Exploratory Methods. For each of these methods, we will look at how we can use Excel to help us in achieving these judgmental forecasts and how Excel can help us visualising our forecast findings. Being judgmental forecasting methods, we will also look at the role of biases in Business Forecasting,
Name:Business Indicators
Description:In this topic, we will explore the role that Business Indicators can play in creating business forecasts, in particular to make judgments on the cyclical component, via predicting turns in the business cycle. We will then look at how Excel can help us execute these insights into business forecasts.
Name:Subjective Assessment Methods
Description:In this topic, we will be exploring 3 different Subjective Assessment Methods for judgmental forecasting. These are structured methodologies to follow when creating judgmental forecasts. We will be looking at the Sales Force Composite Method, the Jury of Executive Opinion, and Subjective Probability Assessments. We will then look at how Excel can assist in executing these methodologies.
Name:Exploratory Methods
Description:In this topic, we will be exploring 2 different Exploratory Methods for judgmental forecasting. These are structured methodologies to follow when creating judgmental forecasts. We will be looking at the Delphi Method and Scenario Analysis. We will then look at how Excel can assist in executing these methodologies.
Name:Biases & Bringing All of Business Forecasting Together
Description:In this topic, we will reflect on the biases that can occur when conducting business forecasts. Then, we will be bringing all the topics together in a case study based assessment, where you will need to apply the principles of judgment to decide the forecasting method used, and utilise judgmental forecasting.
In this course, we extend your business forecasting expertise from the first two courses of our Business Forecasting Specialisation on Time Series Models and Regression Models. We will explore the role of judgmental forecasting, when more quantitative forecasting methods have limitations, and we need to generate further business insights. We will be exploring some structured methodologies to create judgmental business forecasts using Business Indicators, Subjective Assessment Methods, and Exploratory Methods. For each of these methods, we will look at how we can use Excel to help us in achieving these judgmental forecasts and how Excel can help us visualising our forecast findings. Being judgmental forecasting methods, we will also look at the role of biases in Business Forecasting,
