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所在平台: Coursera |
课程主页: https://www.coursera.org/learn/forecasting-skills
课程评论：没有评论
课程名称：预测技能：在事情发生之前看到未来 课程概述：在许多人眼中，未来往往来得突然，甚至让人感到震惊。但通过强大的预测技能，您可以避免未来的惊讶，快速适应并为变化做好准备。在本课程中，您将提升自己的未来预测能力，学习如何将“信号”（关于未来的线索）与“驱动因素”（影响变革方向的全球力量）转化为引人注目的未来预测。预测帮助您为自己、您的公司或您想激励的任何社区发现新的可能性和机会，创造更美好的未来。 您还将学习如何编写未来场景。场景比预测更进一步，激发想象力，讲述如果预测成真可能发生的故事。场景帮助您评估：这是一个我准备好面对的未来吗？这是一个我想要的未来吗？ 本课程由未来研究所的领先未来学家授课，他们将分享如今最令人兴奋的预测和场景，并带您了解创建这些预测和场景所需的关键步骤。接下来，您将选择任何未来主题，制作自己的预测和场景。 参加本课程的好处是什么？凭借强大的预测技能，您将更好地看到未来，能够考虑他人未曾想到或拒绝接受的可能性，并帮助他人准备和适应未来。您可以决定希望使哪些未来更有可能发生，以及希望防止哪些未来。 感谢启明基金会和启明合作社的支持，提供了资助以支持本课程的创建。 课程大纲： 1. **未来预测入门**：了解未来预测的基础知识，什么是好的预测，以及应使用哪些数据来进行预测。 2. **如何创建未来预测**：在掌握预测基础后，学习结合信号和变化驱动因素，以揭示新的可能性。 3. **如何编写未来场景**：了解如何将预测转化为场景，通过编写场景来评估您对未来的准备程度和期望。 4. **如何更新您的预测**：学习如何在预测错误或场景实现后更新预测和重新思考场景，确保不会被旧的思维方式束缚。
Name:Introduction to Future Forecasting
Description:Welcome to our journey to the future! This week, you'll learn the basics: What's a future forecast? What makes a forecast good? What kind of data should I use to make my forecasts? By the end of the week, you'll be ready to analyze "drivers of change", and make your own first, tiny future forecast.
Name:How to Create a Future Forecast
Description:You've got the forecasting basics down. Now it's time to play and experiment with bigger ideas! This week, you'll take a look at some of the Institute for the Future's most interesting recent forecasts. Then, you'll practice combining signals and drivers of change to reveal your own surprising possibilities.
Name:How to Write a Future Scenario
Description:You've forecast the future! Now what? This week, you'll learn how to write scenarios. A scenario takes your forecast one step further. It tells a story about what might happen IF your forecast comes true. A scenario will help YOU evaluate: Am I ready for this future? Is this a future I want? Scenarios are fun. Let's go explore some!
Name:How to Update Your Forecasts
Description:What happens if your forecast is wrong? What happens when a scenario you wrote actually comes true? This week, you'll learn how to update your forecasts and rethink your scenarios. With these techniques, you can make sure you're never "stuck" with old ways of thinking about possible futures.
For many people, the future comes as a surprise – or even a shock. But with strong forecasting skills, YOU can avoid future shock. You can adapt faster, and become better prepared to benefit from change. In this course, you’ll build your future forecasting skills. You'll learn how to turn groups of "signals" (clues about the future) and "drivers" (global forces that influence the direction of change) into compelling future forecasts. Forecasts help you discover new possibilities and opportunities for yourself, your company, or any community you want to inspire to make a better future. You'll also learn how to write future scenarios. Scenarios take forecasts one step further. They spark imagination and tell a story about what might happen if a forecast comes true. Scenarios help you evaluate: Is this a future I'm ready for? Is this a future I want? Leading futurists from the Institute for the Future will show you exactly how it's done. They'll share with you the forecasts and scenarios they’re most excited about right now, and walk you through the key steps they took to create them. Then, it's your turn! You'll create a forecast and a scenario on any future topic you choose. How will you benefit from taking this course? With strong forecasting skills, you'll get better at seeing the future before it happens. You'll be ready to consider possibilities that others never see coming or refuse to accept. You'll be able to help others prepare for and adapt to the future. You can decide which futures you want to make more likely, and which futures you want to prevent. Many thanks to the Enlight Foundation and the Enlight Collaborative, which provided a grant to support the creation of this course.
