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所在平台: Coursera |
课程主页: https://www.coursera.org/learn/developing-the-sir-model
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课程名称: SIR模型开发 概述: 本课程介绍了传染病数学建模的核心——分 compartments建模。学生将学习构建分 compartments模型的一些基本概念，包括如何解释和表示速率、持续时间和比例。课程旨在帮助学员将重点放在简单流行病的行为直觉上，并介绍传染病流行病学的一些基本概念，如基础传染数(R0)及其对传染病动态的影响。借助简单的SIR模型，学员将探讨不同复生数的情景分析。了解感染的易感性对传染病的发展至关重要，从而为流行病动态和控制优先级提供重要见解。 课程大纲: 1. 模型基础 - 学习分 compartmental建模的基本概念，掌握如何在模型中解释和表示速率、持续时间和比例。这为传染病传播的动态建模奠定基础。 2. 流行病解剖 - 学员将放下数学，专注于完全免疫感染在稳定人群中的简单流行病行为直观理解。同时研究传染病流行病学的基本概念，如基础传染数(R0)及其对流行病动态的影响。 3. 模型与洞察结合 - Consolidate 在前两个模块中获得的见解，利用在第一个模块中开发的简单SIR模型，探讨复生数的不同情境。 4. 易感者动态 - 理解感染的易感性如何影响流行病的发展，学习在流行病过程中易感性变化的三种重要机制：人口更替、疫苗接种、免疫衰退。同时，课程将介绍简单的疫苗建模方法，为后续更详尽的建模课程打下基础。 通过本课程，学员将获得构建和分析传染病模型的基本能力，有助于更好地理解疫情动态及其控制策略。
Name:Modelling the Basics
Description:Compartmental modelling is a cornerstone of mathematical modelling of infectious diseases. You will be introduced to some of the basic concepts in building compartmental models, including how to interpret and represent rates, durations and proportions in such models. This work lays the foundations for modelling the dynamics of infectious disease transmission.
Name:Anatomy of an Epidemic
Description:You will be placing the mathematics to one side and concentrating on gaining intuition into the behaviour of a simple epidemic of a perfectly immunising infection in a stable population. You will also study further basic concepts of infectious disease epidemiology, including the basic reproduction number (R0), and its implications for infectious disease dynamics.
Name:Combining Modelling and Insights
Description:You will now consolidate the insights that you have gained over the past two modules to express the mathematical underpinnings of the basic drivers that have been examined. You will use the simple SIR model that you already developed in module 1 to examine different scenarios for reproduction numbers.
Name:Dynamics of Susceptibles
Description:Susceptibility to infection is the fuel for an infectious disease; understanding the dynamics of susceptibility can offer important insights into epidemic dynamics, as well as priorities for control. In this module, building on the basic SIR model that you have coded so far, you will cover three important mechanisms by which susceptibility can change over the course of an epidemic: (i) population turnover, (ii) vaccination, (iii) immunity waning over time. For simplicity, you will learn very simple approaches to modelling vaccination. In our subsequent courses in the Infectious Disease Modelling specialisation, you have the opportunity to cover more detailed approaches for capturing this important intervention.
Compartmental modelling is a cornerstone of mathematical modelling of infectious diseases and this course will introduce some of the basic concepts in building compartmental models, including how to interpret and represent rates, durations and proportions. You'll learn to place the mathematics to one side and concentrate on gaining intuition into the behaviour of a simple epidemic, and be introduced to further basic concepts of infectious disease epidemiology, such as the basic reproduction number (R0) and its implications for infectious disease dynamics. To express the mathematical underpinnings of the basic drivers that you study, you'll use the simple SIR model, which, in turn, will help you examine different scenarios for reproduction numbers. Susceptibility to infection is the fuel for an infectious disease, so understanding the dynamics of susceptibility can offer important insights into epidemic dynamics, as well as priorities for control.
