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所在平台: Coursera |
课程主页: https://www.coursera.org/learn/building-on-the-sir-model
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课程名称：基于SIR模型的扩展 课程概述： 本课程是该系列的第三门课，重点研究在流行病发生早期阶段中，偶然事件如何影响流行病的发展。与其他两门课程的确定性建模不同，本课程将介绍多种与随机性相关的案例，并介绍利用R语言进行建模的简单方法。您将学习在传染病传播动力学中个体结构的重要性，以及如何建立与媒介传播疾病相关的模型，包括罗斯-麦克唐纳模型。即使将来您不从事数学模型的设计与模拟，具备评估模型优缺点的能力，识别改进空间也十分重要。本课程提供了一次批判性同行评审建模研究的机会，帮助您提升相关技能。 课程大纲： 1. **基于SIR模型的随机性构建** 介绍早期流行病中的偶然性及其对未来发展的影响，学习如何使用R进行随机性建模。 2. **基于SIR模型的异质性构建** 探讨在传染病中，某些群体如何在传播中占据重要地位，以及如何建模具有不同人口结构的感染情况。 3. **基于SIR模型的媒介传播疾病构建** 学习如何扩展模型以涵盖媒介传播疾病，包括罗斯-麦克唐纳模型，这为理解此类疾病提供基础。 4. **作业：建模研究批评** 进行建模研究的批判性评审，以锻炼评估模型的能力和应用所学知识。 本课程旨在让您深入理解流行病学建模的复杂性，并提高您的科学评估能力。
Name:Building on the SIR Model: Stochasticity
Description:The other two courses in this specialisation have focused on performing deterministic modelling - that is, the epidemic outcome is predictable as all parameters are fully known. However, there are many cases, especially in the early stages of an epidemic, where chance events can be influential in the future of an epidemic. In this module, you will be introduced to some examples of such ‘stochasticity’, as well as, simple approaches to modelling these epidemics using R.
Name:Building on the SIR model: Heterogeneity
Description:In the basic deterministic SIR model, all susceptible individuals in a population are subject to the same risks of infection. However, there are many important infectious diseases where certain groups of the population account for a disproportionate amount of transmission: these are not always the same groups that bear the greatest amount of morbidity and mortality. In this module, you will examine how to model infections for which such ‘population structure’ plays an important role in the transmission dynamics.
Name:Building on the SIR model: Vector-borne Diseases
Description:Many important diseases are not directly transmitted between hosts, but depend on ‘vectors’ to pass infection between hosts, for example biting insects. It is important to be able to extend the modelling approaches you have studied so far to capture these more complex forms of natural history. In this module, you will learn some of the basic approaches to modelling vector-borne diseases, including the Ross-McDonald model, which is a framework that provides an important foundation for such diseases.
Name:Assignment: Modelling Study Critique
Description:Even if you are not designing and simulating mathematical models in future, it is important to be able to critically assess a model, to appreciate its strengths and weaknesses, and to identify how it could be improved. One way of gaining this skill is to conduct a critical peer review of a modelling study in the position of a reviewer evaluating it for publication in a journal. This module is reserved for the completion of your assignment - for you to apply the knowledge and skills you've developing throughout this specialisation.
The other two courses in this specialisation require you to perform deterministic modelling - in other words, the epidemic outcome is predictable as all parameters are fully known. However, this course delves into the many cases – especially in the early stages of an epidemic – where chance events can be influential in the future of an epidemic. So, you'll be introduced to some examples of such ‘stochasticity’, as well as simple approaches to modelling these epidemics using R. You will examine how to model infections for which such ‘population structure’ plays an important role in the transmission dynamics, and will learn some of the basic approaches to modelling vector-borne diseases, including the Ross-McDonald Model. Even if you are not designing and simulating mathematical models in future, it is important to be able to critically assess a model so as to appreciate its strengths and weaknesses, and identify how it could be improved. One way of gaining this skill is to conduct a critical peer review of a modelling study as a reviewer, which is an opportunity you'll get by taking this course.
